This is my adaptation of Bill Gates’ quote to the World Economic Forum from well over 20 years ago. Originally, the concept called “Amara’s Law,” was coined by Stanford computer scientist Roy Amara.
Today’s AI hype cycle points to massive job displacement and even potential societal collapse as imminent. My day-to-day is immersed in AI discussions with people inside and outside the tech industry. Certainly, the tech insiders are moving as quickly as possible with AI implementations and solutions. Yet, even the tech industry is still in the early stages. I observe 3 distinct groups of companies at wildly different stages of AI deployment.
1) The tech industry- This includes hyperscalers, like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and other tech leaders. They’ve largely embraced AI as their next wave. Broader tech companies are methodically embedding AI into nearly all software and services, as well as their own operations. And of course, the wave of AI startups, inclusive of the SaaS companies. With relative maturity in AI adoption, some of the tech layoffs we’re seeing today are likely secondary impacts of AI efficiencies. Yet even here, it’s not catastrophic.
2) Broader Enterprise Companies- Lots of disparity among the giant companies. Some have embraced AI; others are still kicking the tires. Virtually all of them are acutely aware of the need to adopt AI. However, with significant legacy operations and revenue flow, adoption will be measured and deliberate. Most are still in the incremental “pilot project” stage. It will be years before adoption is wide-spread and mature enough for significant employment impacts.
3) Small businesses (SMBs)- Most are aware of AI. Few have even started adoption, except in limited cases like chatbots. At best, most small companies will start considering AI strategies in 2025, with pilot projects late 2025 or 2026. We’re years away from AI sweeping through SMB at a level to impact employment.
Of course, there’s lots of nuances for particular segments. Call centers, for example, will see far faster and more significant impacts. Specific job functions, as well. Software programmers and lawyers need to embrace AI quickly to avoid being replaced by AI-enabled peers.
Clearly, we’ll see increasing impacts of AI in our consumer lives. It’s been growing steadily for years, with far more visibly with increased AI awareness. While companies incrementally adopt AI, the AI industry itself is moving ahead at lightning speed. One of the significant adoption challenges for businesses will be the speed at which the underlying technology changes. By the time my pilot project proves out, it may be obsolete. Innovation and speed will certainly be growing competitive advantages.
So, while the impact won’t be overwhelming in the next 2-3 years, we’ll look back in 10 years in amazement.
